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    Starting August Market: Mixed Earnings Impact S&P 500

    August 2, 2023

    Starting in August, the S&P 500 experienced a 0.27% decline, with the Nasdaq Composite also dropping by 0.43%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.2%. Several companies reported mixed results, leading to varied stock movements. Pharmaceutical giant Merck pulled back 1.3% despite exceeding revenue expectations, while Caterpillar’s strong results boosted shares by 8.9%. On the other hand, Pfizer fell 1.2% due to declining Covid product sales, and Uber slid 5.7% on mixed earnings. JetBlue also tumbled 8.3% after reducing its guidance due to slowing domestic travel.

    Market analysts attributed these fluctuations to overbought conditions, given the market’s strong performance this year and solid quarterly earnings. Despite over 160 S&P 500 constituents reporting second-quarter results, with 82% exceeding earnings expectations, analysts anticipate a 7.1% earnings decline from a year ago and a third consecutive quarter of falling profits. Economic indicators, including job openings data and manufacturing data showing a continued contraction, were also closely assessed by Wall Street.

    Data by Bloomberg

    On Tuesday, all sectors experienced a 0.27% decline, except for Industrials, which rose by 0.32%, and Information Technology, which saw a slight increase of 0.09%. Financials and Real Estate both dipped by 0.03% and 0.13%, respectively. Communication Services and Materials experienced greater losses, with declines of 0.29% and 0.44% respectively. The Energy sector suffered a 0.46% decrease, while both Consumer Staples and Health Care declined by 0.51%. The Consumer Discretionary sector faced the most significant setback, with a notable 1.15% decline, and Utilities also experienced a considerable 1.26% drop.

    Major Pair Movement

    EUR/USD is trading lower due to influences from China’s yuan and U.S. interest rates. The yuan’s recent appreciation against the dollar stalled, raising concerns about China’s economy and leading to yuan selling. Eurozone data also indicates a slowdown, potentially resulting in a less hawkish ECB stance and weighing on EUR/USD rates.

    U.S. yields remain elevated, and investors expect the Fed to keep rates higher for longer, increasing the dollar’s yield advantage over the euro. Key U.S. data risks are in focus, and upbeat data could further support U.S. rates and the dollar. USD/CAD eyes cloud base support at 1.3311 amid a gloomy global growth outlook, while GBP/USD faces relentless bearish pressure as the BoE’s more-hawkish rate outlook diminishes. USD/JPY is on track to revisit June’s 2023 peak with support at 142. Resilient U.S. data and a soft landing narrative are expected to strengthen the USD.

    Picks of the Day Analysis

    EUR/USD (4 Hours)

    EUR/USD Holds Above Support Amid Mixed Data and Resilient Dollar

    The EUR/USD dropped towards last week’s lows but rebounded during the American session, staying above the crucial support area of 1.0950. The US Dollar remains resilient, but its momentum against the Euro appears to be fading. The Final Eurozone PMI showed little change, while Germany’s unemployment rate fell to 5.6% in July. However, the interest rate market indicates low odds of another rate hike from the ECB. The Greenback lost strength against the Euro following mixed US data, with the JOLTS Job Openings report and ISM Manufacturing PMI coming in below expectations. Despite the numbers, US yields saw modest increases. The market focus now shifts to upcoming US employment data, including the ADP report and Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday.

    Chart EURUSD by TradingView

    According to technical analysis, the EUR/USD moved slightly higher on Tuesday and reached the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is still at the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating that the EUR/USD is in a consolidating mode. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 43, suggesting that the EUR/USD is starting to move back to a neutral stance.

    Resistance: 1.1038, 1.1121

    Support: 1.0915, 1.0839

    XAU/USD (4 Hours)

    XAU/USD Rebounds on US Credit Rate Cut Amid Economic Concerns

    Gold has rebounded to around $1,950 in the Asian session after justifying the United States government’s rate cut by Fitch Ratings. The metal pared previous losses, but technical indicators suggest a bearish trend in the near term. The market sentiment turned negative due to disappointing earnings from big names, leading to a surge in demand for the safe-haven US Dollar. Additionally, US data disappointed, with manufacturing PMI missing estimates. The situation remains uncertain, and investors are closely watching employment clues for further market direction.

    Chart XAUUSD by TradingView

    According to technical analysis, the XAU/USD fell on Tuesday and is now approaching the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is moving in the middle between the lower and middle bands of the Bollinger Bands, indicating that there is still potential for Gold to move lower and reach the lower band. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 45, which suggests that the XAU/USD pair is in a neutral stance but slightly bearish.

    Resistance: $1,954, $1,979

    Support: $1,938, $1,912

    Economic Data

    CurrencyDataTime (GMT + 8)Forecast
    NZDEmployment Change q/q06:451.0% (Actual)
    NZDUnemployment Rate06:453.6% (Actual)
    USDADP Non-Farm Employment Change20:15191K