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Week ahead: Markets to Focus on Major Central Banks Rate Statements and US Employment Report

May 2, 2023

This week, market participants await the release of highly awaited economic reports, which will highlight key indicators such as Rate Statements in the US and Australia, as well as Employment Change in the US and Canada. These reports have immense significance as they enable traders and investors to make informed decisions and stay ahead of the market. 

ISM Manufacturing PMI | US (May 1)

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.3 in March 2023, the lowest since May 2020.

Analysts expect a reading of 46.6 for April 2023. 

Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Statement (May 2)

During its April meeting, the RBA held its cash rate steady at 3.6%, in line with market expectations. This marks the first pause in the current hiking cycle, which began in May 2022. 

For April, analysts expect the central bank to keep the rate unchanged at 3.6%. 

ISM Services PMI | US (May 3)

The US ISM Services PMI dropped to 51.2 in March 2023 from 55.1 in February 2023, the slowest growth in three months. 

For April, analysts expect a reading of 50.6.

FOMC Meeting and Funds Rate | US (May 3)

The Fed raised its funds rate by 25bps to 5% in March 2023. 

Despite a slower inflation rate, analysts anticipate that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates, with another 25bps hike to 5.25% in April 2023. 

European Central Bank Main Refinancing Rate (May 4)

Most ECB policymakers agreed to raise key interest rates by 50bps to 3.5% last month, though some members would have preferred not to increase them until the financial market tensions had subsided. 

The ECB is set to deliver a 25bps rate hike in its May meeting, with further increases expected to be implemented in subsequent meetings.

Employment Change | Canada (May 5)

The Canadian economy added 35,000 jobs in March 2023, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5% for the fourth consecutive month. This is near the record low of 4.9% seen in June and July 2022. 

For  April  2023, it is anticipated that job creation numbers will drop slightly to 25,000. The unemployment rate is expected to be at 5.1%.

Employment Change | US (May 5)

The US economy created 236,000 jobs in March, the least since December 2020. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5% in March 2023.

Analysts expect the US to create 190,000 jobs in April 2023, while the unemployment rate will be at 3.5%.